Bruce Gordon Logical Decision Data Solutions VB Programmer
Monday, March 2, 2020
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Improve School Security- Generate Employment
The recent incident at Sandy Hook Elementary school in Newtown,CT shows what can happen in the absence of security personnel working within our public schools.
Obvious and immediate reactions from all around - including myself - was to vociferously ask for a ban on the easy availability of firearms.
Obvious and immediate reactions from all around - including myself - was to vociferously ask for a ban on the easy availability of firearms.
However, asking for a ban on the easy sale and possession of fire arms would take the debate totally into a different direction and that is not the purpose of this blog.
The purpose is to arrive at a solution that is both socially and economically viable which can address the main issue that concerns all of us parents. That issue is the absence of security personnel at our public schools.
The purpose is to arrive at a solution that is both socially and economically viable which can address the main issue that concerns all of us parents. That issue is the absence of security personnel at our public schools.
Can we provide Security at Schools ?
If we were to consider hiring security personnel at the schools, the main question that we will face is the lack of funds to be able to pay for the salaries of the security personnel.
How many Security guards would be needed ?
Considering one at the school office , one patrolling the halls and one or 2 patrolling the grounds, between 3-4 armed security guards looks like a reasonable deterrent for criminal / mentally unstable elements who may have similar thoughts like the perpetrator of the Newtown incident.
Can the government help?
Given the present state of the US fiscal budget and the polarization over the education budget that we see in the congress, the education budget (which has already shrunk) is most likely to take a further hit.
With the wranglings in the Senate and House over the budget for education, the chances of the government being able to provide such funds seems to be a near impossibility.
Can we make a difference?
USA has always prided itself on independence and free will and the concept of self help is not new. Can we as parents come together to start something to help ourselves?
I believe we can, and we should.
The solution
This may sound like a overly simple solution but establishing a security fund would be the way forward. This fund needs to be supported by community contributions. Is it economically possible for the community to support such a fund ?
Yes it i
Consider that for each child in the school system, the parents contribute $20 per month ,(about the cost of a weekend pizza night ) for this security fund. In a school of 500 students, such contributions would generate $10,000 per month. In this event, annual figures would add up to $120,000.
Consider that for each child in the school system, the parents contribute $20 per month ,(about the cost of a weekend pizza night ) for this security fund. In a school of 500 students, such contributions would generate $10,000 per month. In this event, annual figures would add up to $120,000.
What can be done in 120K?
Can we pay for the required security guards within this fund of $120,000?
Let us assume we pay going by the national figures.
As per the Social Security Administration website*, for an average US household in year 2011, the annual income figures were - the average income just above $40,000 and the median income just above $25,000.
Keeping the figures above in mind let us do some math.
Taking full time employment as a way forward, and with a salary of $40K per security guard, this fund would pay for 3 full-time security guards. Going just over the median salary $25K , say with a salary of $30K per security guard, this would pay for 4 full time security guards.
Taking part time employment as the way forward (2.5 days a week per person) and with pro-rated salaries (average and median), this corpus would pay for between 6 and 8 part time security guards.
So its possible that , for a very small contribution per family we can arrange for security guards at the schools where our children go to learn and play on a daily basis.
National Level impact
Can these numbers between 3 and 8 per school make a dent in the present state of unemployment in USA?
Probably it will.
As per the statistics released by the National Center for Educational Statistics†, as of 2009-2010- there are over 98,000+ schools in USA. Multiply this number by 3 or 8 and we could generate employment for somewhere between 294,000 full time personnel at average salary of $40K or 784,000 part time security personnel at median salary of $30K.
Is this figure big enough to merit consideration?
At present, based on the numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics # in Nov 2012, 12 million americans were unemployed .
How much will the unemployment reduce ?
294 thousand out of 12 million means a reduction of 2.45 percent and 784 thousand out of 12 million means a reduction of 6.5 percent in the number of unemployed.
Even the conservative figure of 2.45 percent is a good number when we consider that its a community driven effort and there is no further increase in government expenditure and no increase in taxes.
Call to action
This is just one way that we can bring about the changes that will ensure that our children will remain safe at schools and any untoward incidents are minimized.
Let us all talk to our our elected representatives, our selectmen , our state representatives and start a discussion in the community to bring about such community driven changes.
We have only to gain from improved safety of our children and a strongly knit community that is self sustaining.
References:
Understanding Global Economics- Part1
Posted on behalf of my dear friend who chooses to keep his identity secret
In a growing economy (like India which was growing at high levels for the last few years and was expected to grow even faster), the required growth rate for sustaining employment is more than zero. This is blended growth for Indian economy has a whole. For the 55% of the economy in service sector, the 30% in manufacturing and the rest in agriculture, growth rates are different.
Think of a software company. it would hire so many people assuming a growth rate of say 30%. normally these people are benched till needed. when suddenly demand reduces, companies will have no option but to reduce workforce. even if the company is growing by 15% i/o 30% as projected during the hiring plan, they would still need to cut workforce. in auto sales and allied businesses like vehicle loan sales etc it was india shining story till 3 months back. just think of how much "bench" workforce would be hired based on projected growth and now needs to be pruned..
thus for economy as a whole, for India, it is estimated that about 6% growth rate is required to maintain employment at current levels. ofcourse for 1.5 m people loosing jobs, there may be 0.5m people getting jobs also...since we are linked to the global economy (just think of the salary increases all you professionals got in India in the last 4-5 years) even the slump will be felt here. do you think the Re appreciation was because of domestic demand? or suddenly what you were doing is worth paying more because of domestic business? it was only because of global linkages and global trends.
economy is a vicious cycle.. based on confidence.. people behave according to what they expect will happen... lets take an expample of something you would know about...auto companies.. export demand has gone down.. but anyway exports were small percentage of total sales.. say last year the auto company was operating at 80% of capacity (infact this is conservative estimate.. so much new capacity has come up in last few years much of it for export markets).. with no exports, it is now operating at 65% capacity... so they hope domestic demand is enough to keep them going.. but there is no retail credit.. hence car sales are slow in domestic market (july- sept last year) .. so dealers and auto manufacturers suffer.. operating capacity goes down to 55% very close to break even capacity...bonuses are cut.. jobs are on the line.. auto sector employees are scared and not buying new cars... or houses... so housing companies can't sell under construction projects and get advance payment from buyers.. they don't have money to complete projects.. banks are not disbursing loans to buyers because projects are held up.... there is no new capital coming in.. companies had started projects/ made acquitions expecting to get money from booming equity markets (2007-2008)... all IPOs are cancelled because no one wants to invest in equity issues (sept-dec last year) .. FDI is stuck because foreign funds have redemption pressure at home... till the IPO money comes in, companies had borrowed in USD over last few years because it was cheaper to borrow in USD.. now Re is depreciating.. suddenly instead of needing INR 40 to repay USD 1 they need INR 50.. this is ok if you have export sales.. because you would earn more as well, but with no export sales, this hits profitability of domestic sales.. cost of imports has gone up because of depreciating Re... there are no other sources to raise funds for these companies.. people expect house prices to go down further and delay purchases.. distribution pipelines are clogged with unsold stuff.. companies stop producing new vehicles (Telco had closed its plant)... auto companies go below break even levels..builders have to reduce rates... auto companies, dependent ancillary companies and construction companies start making losses.. they don't have money to repay previous loans (Unitech)...banks fear non performing assets.. they are scared to lend.. cost of financing goes up.. sales go down further.. proftability goes down further (dec quarter results for most Indian companies).. jobs are cut to save cost... employees are more scared to spend.. companies go into deeper trouble, default on loans (this will happen after march 09) ... unemployed people default on personal loans.. banks tighten lending and increase rates and so on.. you can imagine how this extends to other industries and economy as a whole....
So india will still grow, but all plans have been made on much higher growth projections.. say 9% growth. to add to the problem, every company had planned to increase its market share in the growing pie. this means that if the software industry is growing at 30%, each company in the industry had assumed growth of 40% because of increased market share it hoped to acquire in a growing industry. if the actual growth of Indian economy is less than 6%.. we are in big trouble, if it is more than 6% we are in less trouble. The slump and recovery is expected to be "L" shaped..sudden drop (which we are seeing right now) and then straight line at the bottom for few months/years with very late and slow recovery.
on ligher note, the current situation reminds me of typical scene in cartoons.. Tom & Jerry style... Tom is running very fast.. and he goes over a cliff but still continues to run.. then suddenly he feels that there is no ground under his feet.. and then, only after he looks down and sees the huge empty space below him, realisation sets in... says bye, bye...and goes down... in a vertical freefall....
but seriously, the big question is: what can govts do to get us out of all this mess? govts have 2 tools.. monetory & fiscal stimulus..
monetory stimulus is what RBI or US Fed does.. reduce key rates and increase liquidity. India has done this. key rates are reduced (the rate at which RBI would lend banks) .. so also has US, UK, Europe etc.. how do you increase liquidity? by reducing CRR/SLR for banks, which has been done.. but still no use.. banks are not lending to each other.. banks don't want to go to RBI to borrow, because RBI is the lender of last resort.. so if market knew that the bank has gone to RBI, all its other funding sources would freeze.. so today this benchmark rate means nothing... banks are not lending to corporates/ individuals.. actual interst rates charged on loans are not reducing....consumers are not borrowing.. this policy worked in the US post 9/11 slump and dotcom bubble burst.. because of cheap credit people started spending borrowed money and it also fuelled the real estate boom to create "wealth".. this is supposed to have been the reason for todays problems.. cheap credit creates asset bubble.. but its not working now.. plus creating another bubble just postpones the enevitable and generally the new bubble is bigger causing more pain when it bursts..today US rates are close to zero.. UK, Euro rates are at historic lows and approaching zero..there is no room left to go further down this path..
fiscal stimulus is done by finance ministry in India or the current stimulus bill being put to vote in the US. this includes reducing taxes & increasing public spending.. by reducing rates, govt expects that people/ companies will invest/ consume more with the money saved or rebate received due to tax breaks.. this has also worked in US in the near past.. but this is not working today, because people & companies are scared.. with the tax breaks, they are paying down debt or just hoarding cash... when private sector is scared and not willing to invest or increase consumption, govt has to do it. so china, india and now even US govt want to increase public spending.. say build roads, bridges etc. theoretically even if the govt employs millions of people to dig ditches, fill the ditches then build a wall and then break it to down make a ditch and again fill the ditch etc... it is supposed to break the vicious cycle. it creates demand for materials, creates jobs.. which would further create demand for other things, increase operating capacity of manufacturers.. make them profitable.. increase employment.. improve bank's loan portfolio..ease liquidity.. increase investment in new capacity... create more jobs and so on. but of course if the govt builds roads/ bridges its better because there would be longer term use of the money spent (the New Deal by FDR in US after the 1930s recession). but for all this the govt needs money. but actually, govt has less money because tax revenues decrease and money is needed to bail out banks/companies.. India has bailed out 3 nationalised banks today by infusing capital.
which poses the grave and serious question: where will all these govts get money for all this proposed huge public spending, specially when revenues are decreasing? answer is as simple: by printing money..
all governments are printing money.. US,UK, Europe..thats the only option left. "printing money" is just a term to indicate monetising of deficits (govt expenditure is more than revenue).. this does not mean that actually Rs 100 and Rs. 1000 notes are printed for circulation. it means that govt has increased the money supply.. e.g. when govt issues treasury bills, it is increasing supply. just like a Rs 100 note is an IOU from the govt (read what it says on the note), so is a treasury bill. only the treasury bill is denominated in crores.. so its a faster way of monetising. normally with this policy the inflation should go up, because there is more money in the system, but in india the inflation is falling.. because of reduced oil prices and also because of demand slump.. so more needs to be done to spur activity.
when you print money, naturally value of the currency goes down.. when you reduce rates also, currency should go down.. all countries are doing both.. so all currencies are down..except in the US.. US is printing money like crazy and rates are close to zero.. but because everyone else is also printing money and reducing rates, in the end investors choose USD as a safe heaven... people expect the US to come out of recession first.. or rather till US comes out of recession there is no hope for anyone else... so USD is safe heaven..illogical.. but thats the way the market is working.
unfortunately all tried and tested methods as well as theoretical approaches are failing one by one.. no one has any idea what will save the world.. there is no unanimity on what to do.. co-ordination between political parties and countries and trading zones is impossible because of internal political dynamics. what is good on individual level (do not spend, pay down debt) is not good for the whole country. what is politically good for countries (protect industries, go swadeshi) is not good for the world economy.
anyway, i don't think the indian govt will make false reports about the money supply. what the report would mean is that the money supply increase is fudged eg. the govt issues petroleum bonds to PSU oil companies to offset marketing loss. the effect is actually increasing money supply.. but it may not be classified as T-Bill or printing money. none the less, this figure is published by the govt under another heading. this has been happening for last few decades. nothing new here. US has stopped disclosing its M3 or the aggregate money supply in the system, so india is still a lot more transparent.
in summary, enjoy the ride.. hold on to your cash (preferably in USDs) and hope everyone else spends money. when the timing is right (who can guess that?) start investing in stocks & real estate.. get 1000%returns on your money in a short time after the recovery... all traditional fortunes made in the last century were by taking advantage of the 1930s depression and economic recessions..
make the most of this mess, if you survive.
Living Life Checklist Style
Surprised !!!
Yes this is a unconventional topic for sure.
This is with deep sympathies to all those souls who live their lives-i mean the full lives- probably since their early childhood, all the way through to.. well you know what I mean. The last bed..
I feel this deep sympathy because they have never experienced the wonderful surprises pleasures life has to offer.
What surprise can you get when your life centers around a checklist?
Some checklists are quite amazing in the scope of activities they cover and the depth of your daily life that they can permeate into .
One checklist goes like this -
School life
Go to school without any ruckus in the school bus(Good boy- well behaved), be among first 3 to answer all questions (show that you are smart), play one game(good for health) , come home- drink milk (again good for health), do all homework in time (good boy again) , go down and play(good for health again) revise the work done in school for 1 hour(repeatition of an actvity is the key to proper understanding) , sleep before 9:30 ( early to bed and early to rise.,....yawn). Check check check check everyday from 5th to 10th.
In vacations- join one hobby class(helps develop balanced brain) learn one instrument(all round development), enroll in dramatics or debate society(good command over labguage is necessary to succeed in life) check check check.
Complete 10th with above 90% - Check
Have fun with college friends by going for a drinks party (!!!) I drink cola you drink whatever :) - Check
Join Vacation batch classes in the small window oif enjoyment allowed between 11th and 12th - Check
Get above 95% in PCM / PCB in 12th - Check
Join the desired engineering college in merit seat !!! Check
Attend all practicals and note ALL observations of each experiment religiously and get them signed by the incharge - Check
Submit the journal immediately the next day ( develops promptness in habits) - Check
Attend ALL lectures ( learning is like a opportunity- you never know when the prof. may tell you something of high importance) - Check
Be a part of the college team in some sport(health again ) - Check
Be a part of the college drama group- (even if its a side-side-side kick role) ( helps conquer stage fear and all round development) - Check
Participate in Group discussions and summarize in time for the last minute bell- Get Campus offers from first 2 companies - Check
Select the offer that gives best experience- Check
Work diligently for 4 years - and get one promotions per year - check
Register name in marriage bureau - Check
Marry at age of 28-29 to a Check- girl of age 25-26. - Check
Book a flat at a good rate - Check
Do family planning for 2 years(this period is necessary for establishing good relation with the life partner)- Check
Go to US on a H1B visa and immediately stop the family planning - Check
Buy a car before the first child is born (so the wife can be transported back and fro easily and dont have to spend on cabs) - Check
Work hard from 9 am to 5pm everyday without leave for 335 days a year - Check
Take one month vacation to India to keep in touch with reality) - Check
Have 2 kids- one boy one girl in next 3 years ( its important for the wife's and baby's health to have children before 26+2+3= 32 Wow!!!) - Check and Check
Leave Indian company to join the US company who will file GC - Check
GC is in process so stay back without vacation for next 6 years - Check
At every opportunity say- no we are going back to India next year- Check
Wife with Post Graduate education stays at home because its important for kids to have good parenting- Check
Now he has 2 kids - older boy in 4th grade and younger daughter in 2nd grade.
I bet you are as bored of reading as I am of writing , so just imagine what a boring life this person must be living !!!!
Nothing in this guy's life is ever a surprise,
But here it is !!!!
Imagine what happens to the guy when the US multinational that hired him 4 years ago for a fat salary simply gives him the pink slip ?
Lets talk in the next post :)
5 Steps to Self-Sustainable Eco-communities
Power- Solar and Wind
Every township needs power source for cooking, heating and operating machines. This is number 1 need.This can be achieved through Solar Power and Wind Power. For a nation like India- Solar Power is the answer, not only will this enable harnessing power but will also ensure that the homes or bldgs remain under a shade. thus reducing the cooling requirements everywhere.
Rainwater Harvesting
Enormous amount of precious rainwater that falls on our land flows out to the sea through rivers. Rainwater harvesting and localized storage is the crying need to times.
Like the bavdis of arid areas like rajasthan - e need to be able to develop towns with roofs of houses flowing onto one another and the water finally being sent to a percolation pit dug next to a bavdi which is used for consuming the water.
one pit of 10foot by 10foot by 10 foot can hold enough water for the annual water needs of a family of 4. change this into a 5 by 5 hole 40 feet deep and you have your answer that can be placed under every small house :).
BioDiversity Pockets in each locality/ community
Every township needs sufficient places for people to breath and enjoy nature. Good ecological preserves with efficient reuse of bio waste for the preserve would be a wonderful means to achieve this. This will also serve as means of preserving the biological diversity and establish eco-pockets from where trees and shrubs can take root and spread nearby.
Planting shady trees all along the roads is also very essential - I have firsthand seen the relief that people get when they reach our locality in Pune after walking for miles without any shade.
This same concept was earlier called as a "Devrai" and established into the daily lives this pocket of trees and shrubs, grass, birds, animals etc was sacrosanct and no one was allowed to cut a single branch from there.
Efficient non polluting Vehicles and Better Roads
Every township needs to have adequate transport facilities to ensure smooth commercial activity. Thus we need ecologically non-damaging alternatives to petrochemicals.
Electricity/ Fuel Cell/ Bio Fuels.Many of thee technologies are now being released by the developing companies and again we need a bunch of technocrats to work in the infrastructure sector and make usable buses / cars/ scooters a reality in India.
Townships cant be isolated and need good connectivity with other townships- so good road network is what is definitely needed, presently we have cement or asphalt and tar roads as options.
Honest , reliable and easy to use financial systems
Leveraging the established cell phone networks
Strong financial systems for transactions- on the internet/ through phone or best would be through mobile is what is needed to eliminate lots of travelling back and forth for currency exchange from banks and for banks to spend money to ensure currency availability in each branch and ATM etc.
Establishing strong norms for mobile based transactions and allowing easy signup for both merchants and consumers will be key to making commercial activity a breeze.
Rainwater Harvesting
Enormous amount of precious rainwater that falls on our land flows out to the sea through rivers. Rainwater harvesting and localized storage is the crying need to times.
Like the bavdis of arid areas like rajasthan - e need to be able to develop towns with roofs of houses flowing onto one another and the water finally being sent to a percolation pit dug next to a bavdi which is used for consuming the water.
one pit of 10foot by 10foot by 10 foot can hold enough water for the annual water needs of a family of 4. change this into a 5 by 5 hole 40 feet deep and you have your answer that can be placed under every small house :).
BioDiversity Pockets in each locality/ community
Every township needs sufficient places for people to breath and enjoy nature. Good ecological preserves with efficient reuse of bio waste for the preserve would be a wonderful means to achieve this. This will also serve as means of preserving the biological diversity and establish eco-pockets from where trees and shrubs can take root and spread nearby.
Planting shady trees all along the roads is also very essential - I have firsthand seen the relief that people get when they reach our locality in Pune after walking for miles without any shade.
This same concept was earlier called as a "Devrai" and established into the daily lives this pocket of trees and shrubs, grass, birds, animals etc was sacrosanct and no one was allowed to cut a single branch from there.
Efficient non polluting Vehicles and Better Roads
Every township needs to have adequate transport facilities to ensure smooth commercial activity. Thus we need ecologically non-damaging alternatives to petrochemicals.
Electricity/ Fuel Cell/ Bio Fuels.Many of thee technologies are now being released by the developing companies and again we need a bunch of technocrats to work in the infrastructure sector and make usable buses / cars/ scooters a reality in India.
Townships cant be isolated and need good connectivity with other townships- so good road network is what is definitely needed, presently we have cement or asphalt and tar roads as options.
Honest , reliable and easy to use financial systems
Leveraging the established cell phone networks
Strong financial systems for transactions- on the internet/ through phone or best would be through mobile is what is needed to eliminate lots of travelling back and forth for currency exchange from banks and for banks to spend money to ensure currency availability in each branch and ATM etc.
Establishing strong norms for mobile based transactions and allowing easy signup for both merchants and consumers will be key to making commercial activity a breeze.
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